Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Econometrics and Behavioral Economics

The current policy makers call their work.. Econometrics...the application of mathematics and statistical methods used in the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent of theory and analysis. Others at Market Watch talk about Behavioral Economics and the psychology of denial...you can't hear and can't see warning signs ...till after the fact...

Any how....1/2 the country now buys into this stuff.......the politicians quietly think Sequestration will cure the nations debt problems...not understanding the "fiscal cliff" or caring....they have bought their votes.

It just gets better and better..the press offers only hyper selective information to the new social network...most remain unread.....long and wrong FB.

We have so few checks and balances in the system anymore.....many of the old timers have thrown in the towel and will wait until next year to make any investment decisions......while many hundreds of millions of people just stand there....incredible really....but that is what has happened...no budget for the USA in years...and cool aid drinkers standing at the trough taking in all the "safe" debt they can...crowding out all other investments.

Cash continues to accrue at incredible speed.. in all the right spaces....cash as a percent of tangible equity....and the available investment pool of stock shrinks everyday with lower stock prices and more aggressive stock buy backs....

Things are becoming pretty black and white now....

Danny Boy seen here enjoying the beginning of summer.