Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Europe

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It seems most investors are experts on Europe now, it's recession, it's pending debt implosion and lack of leadership. In fact a prominent distressed investor is quoted as saying, "Europe today is like J.F.K. airport at rush hour, as all the commercial banks are lined up to sell their debt at about 60% of face value.

Barron's had a great comment last week: "After the stock market suffers a major decline of several trillion dollars and recovers perhaps all or most of it over several years, typically those who gain the trillions in the recovery are not the same as those who lost it in the decline. This is why the most successful investors tend to be defensive (strong price discipline), habitually cluster around the middle of the risk spectrum while mostly avoiding the extremes, and follow the adage "keep your mistakes small.""

We agree.

Stock certificates of the world's greatest companies are shrinking in availability (because of stock repurchases or "buy backs"... over $491 billion in 2011) and bonds issued by governments globally are printing as much new paper as the markets will bear (trillions upon trillions). Their supply is expanding exponentially.

Which would you rather own? Which has more value in an inflationary or deflationary environment?

The global race to devalue ones currency has begun.

Danny Boy seen here reflecting on the sunset knows what he wants to own and not own in 2012.