FRESH START

There is just far to much look back from the past 70 years for historical evidence as to what is going to happen in the relatively near future. The 50% rally off the oversold market from earlier this year relative to the 1930's for example. The "record" bounce off the lows.... Even the comparisons to the famous Dow Jones Industrial Average...who cares! That average alone has been retro fitted so many times nobody even knows what 30 stocks are in it anymore....much less were part of it 30 and 70 years ago.

Facts:
-Americans have been paying down their debt.
-Their government has peaked in size and spending (they just don't know it yet). Peak Government!
-Just say NO...this is what wdc, llc hears now everyday.
-Interest rates are going higher...much higher....
-The record bond issuance year to date from the government and corporate sector has been a buyers fool game....they got snookered.
-Equity investors withdrew a total of $7.5 billion from U.S. equity mutual funds on a net basis in the four weeks ended Sept. 9th, even as stocks rose to an 11-month high....the longest stretch of selling in more than a year according to B$oomberg.
-Cash and free cash flow inside major US corporations is at an all time high. This is why acquisitions will pick up...see the recent high tech deal.
-Big Banks (true monopolies now) have what everyone wants........they are bargains.
-The Internet recession is over...the trillions of non cash mark downs will be largely reversed soon.....the panic of 2007-2008 will be written... that the hype... of the end of the world and pending depression was media and social hype.
-The US dollar will continue lower simply from dilution....it will have a short term bounce once we start to raise interest rates...
-Earnings estimates are too low for the coming year.
-Unemployment will peak this 4th quarter....companies are too lean and will begin to rehire and start to take on new office space....thus the rally in REITS lately....coming off of below book prices.
-Mid-term elections a year from now will change control in congress again just like 1993-1994.
-Stocks are cheap and under owned....short term over bought.
-Bonds are over bought.
-Gold is going higher....so are all commodities in a long term secular bull market..everyone is still fighting.
-Global warming is a farce....the polar ice caps are 25% larger than a year ago.....as solar sun spot activity is in a 10 to 20 year down cycle.

Month end and quarter end next week is panicking the cash and bond holders....globally.....thus the firm bid in the stock market for now.

People need to recognize they/ we need a fresh start and thinking about the future.....medicare and social security will be rewritten......payments will start later...people will work longer...

300 million Americans and 5.6 billion other people on this planet...get ready for shortages of almost everything and much higher prices.

Danny Boy seen here enjoying the sunny autumnal equinox.