Attention First Time Buyers

We can only imagine how many new investors bought stock today....after somewhat favorable press suggested the great recession is now "probably" over. This is normal and expected....especially after the recent stock market run and pressure to compete on performance with cash and bonds.

Use this market to materially upgrade and concentrate your portfolio. Sell small and mid cap companies. The super blue chip American stocks remain the best run and capitalized in the world...and most importantly the least expensive. We can't remember another time when GE was up 5% each day for three consecutive sessions. Most of these companies are breaking massive down trends and rising off of superior support levels.

Investment tax losses are evaporating quickly. This will begin to relieve the treasury and their income deficits. Remember "Peak Government" is upon us.....employment at government agencies will begin to decline as the dramatic national effort to protest all things related to the government take-over.... starts to gain traction. Americans are learning a valuable lesson. And the country remains "center right".

As the market rotates through various sectors....look at relative strength. Coal companies rising faster than coal prices, same with gold, natural gas, and oil.....in other words.... the stock market is anticipating further price rises in commodities. A natural inflation hedge. Banks too are breaking out again after their recent consolidation a major positive. The remaining pundits are banging on commercial real estate. OK...but, most corporations over fired their staffing needs in the last twelve months...they will rehire many....but raise prices and salaries first (so profits go higher than expected near term) and then vacant office space starts to get reabsorbed in 2010. There are buyers for almost all real estate now.....just a relatively wide bid and ask "spread".

The stock market should remain firm for awhile as cash is squeezed, shorts have to cover yet more losing positions and money managers are scrambling to show some performance for the remaining 2009 calendar year. This will probably take a bit of gains from 2010...as many will go to the sidelines again by mid 2010 to see the coming change of control at wdc, llc..in the mid term elections a year from now.

The Fed, now severely behind the curve, will be raising interest rates much sooner than market participants think....fed funds can't be at zero in this environment. Seniors and corporations need to get some inflation adjusted return on their cash....right now it is severely negative.

Trading volume is finally picking up as investors return to the USA market, another positive. China continues to rest......never ever sell a silent market.

The trend is your friend.

Danny Boy seen here with his eyes wide open.