Wednesday, August 19, 2009

"He's Got Nothing To Lose"

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The winner of the big golf tournament last week, said "I thought if it landed where I was going to hit it, then I had a good chance to win and seal the deal." The number one player in the world was defeated, he said "I just didn't get it done." Sports, business and life are that way....the person/ entity with nothing to lose is always the most dangerous and has to be respected.

The F1 car racing season is now dominated by the team with the least amount of money spent, it is not unusual to see the best baseball team win with the smallest payroll. New companies that offer a shift in thinking can many times beat the older more bureaucratic competitor....they simply can't move as fast and might have too much overhead or dead weight.

A famous stock market guru said last week, "When you get older and you're wrong people don't assume you're wrong but that you've lost it." Of course his wisdom has been proven largely correct in his forecasts for the year....he was bullish last winter.

The most famous stock investor has written an op-ed piece in the NYT's today. "Fiscally we are in uncharted territory (and) the dollar's destiny lies with Congress." We agree.....everyone we speak to is petrified by wdc' llc's daily prevaricating actions and now of course they will pursue health care on their own without a majority support of the American people....

One of America's great business success stories practises these four principles:

1) Is it the truth?
2) Is it fair to all concerned?
3) Will it build goodwill and better friendship?
4) Will it be beneficial to all concerned?

China now off 20% from it's highs looks interesting as of course everyone is now calling it a bear market and thus our markets need to go lower. We disagree.....our markets are cheap and resting.....

Investors are missing the long term trend:

1) The dollar is going to be severely diluted...its going lower...our purchasing power will be diminished. Commodities are under accumulation as are hard assets.
2) Taxes are going higher.....much higher....so are interest rates.
3) Savings will go higher.....as people simply are going to be much more conservative.....travel less, eat less and drive your older car longer.
4) Scarcity in almost everything is upon us.....remember the new monopolies will sell less for more. International super blue chip companies win. Small companies will be compromised.
3) The backlash on our elected officials is in the very early stages....."we are mad as hell and not going to take it any more." Mid term elections are now going to be very interesting....and the new focus.
4) The biggest debacle right now is the gross under investment in all things infrastructure..food, energy (all) and transportation.

The American people have so much at stake.....it is almost as we have nothing to lose but to start all over again.....the American way!

Danny Boy seen here in his cooling off period.