Thursday, December 13, 2012

The Scenester




 
If the Chairman pegs his fiscal policy to unemployment (their mandate) and looks to history as his guide.. then what happens when the demographics change as well as robotics/ automation....are now influencing the future employment numbers and his policy is wrong relative to the past and historical unemployment?

More fun facts:
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1) Corporate debt as a percent of GDP in China is the highest in the world at 151% vs. USA at 75%.
2) The federal government now borrows $4.8 billion per day.....for every dollar it spends it has to borrow .46cts!
3) Recent research suggests of the $20 trillion of debt outstanding... it yields an average of less than 1%.
4) If you spent $1m a day since Jesus was born, you would not have spent $1 trillion by now....but $700b the same amount the banks got in the bail out.
5) The difference in $1m in 100 dollar bills... $1m equals 22 lbs....$1b equals 10 tons.
6) The average government worker earns $84k..that is $32k more than the private sector. On the government pay roll 2.2 million folks costing $236b per year and it is the fastest growing sector of the economy.
7) The debt under the current prez has grown collectively greater in five years than all the other presidents combined in the history of the USA....or $49,432 per household.
8) South Korea is now the worlds second largest importer of LNG.
9) Globally food prices are now at record highs....not good.
10) Since January 1st, 2009 through June 30th, 2012 debt has increased 45% and the economy has grown 7.1%. That is called a bad trade.
11) The IEA estimates that an unprecedented level of investment-an estimated $1.6 trillion per year on average- will be necessary to meet energy demand through 2035....hard to believe that can/ will happen.
12) XOM says 75% of the world's population will reside in Asia pacific and Africa by 2040.

The market strategists are bullish on equity for 2013 globally. Many smart folks are also calling for the long bull market in bonds to end soon....we agree....the Fed now will own the majority of paper.....forcing cash to go else where...

Stocks/ equity remains under owned and appreciated. The private sectors smartest best educated hardest working employees are doing the best they can to deal with increasing taxes and regulation.....they are making less than the folks in government but they are doing a better job....it is an easy decision for us to know where to invest.... in this setting....but expectations have to realistic and low.....for there is only one way out of this debt everyone is drowning in.....and that is to print money.....higher taxes mathematically can't square the books.

Danny Boy seen here seeing through the fog.