Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Biff's World and the Normalisation of Deviance


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Sociologists call this deviance...that is, ignoring small changes which might later culminate in an extreme event....sound familiar?

Equity markets around the world are down:
Mexico-20%
Brazil-30%
Germany-20%
China-28%
Australia-16%

Biff and his clan now have complete control for the next two months...we'll see if the western world's political "leadership" can pull a rabbit out of their hat. We don't think they can...it will be a long 1.2 years until real change can be accomplished. Patience will be rewarded. Back to the the future?

We got the first big down draft last month we were looking for....China and Oil companies are already testing 2008-2009 lows....they need to hold.

We remain in a general bear market until we are not.
We remain in a sovereign debt crisis in the Western world until we are not.

Ten of the past eleven days have been triple digit moves...expect more of the same.

A famous Wall Street leader had a rule...all losing stocks were to be sold by every Friday. Why? Losses interfere with clear thought. The most disciplined "traders" quickly limit losses....says IBD. This is why so many banksters are in trouble...they are hoping for a rebound in their losing portfolios.

Flying magazine says of pilots.....be careful...when things are at their worst, you won't be at your best. And, complacency can create the "see what you want to see" syndrome.

To err is human. And we are in an accelerated end game right now...debt service exploded 16% higher for the Federal Government in the last fiscal year! Even with rates approaching zero.

Finally the hedge funds gaming the system with "high frequency trading"...front running all other participants are getting front headline news...but it will be another flash crash and year before anything is done about these folks....in the 1990's market manipulation was against the law.

Danny Boy seen here in the extreme drought...wondering what is next.