Psychotherapy and Business

A famous commodities manager said, "(he) had no fear of swapping one discipline for another because (money management) is all about identifying patterns and (certain) behaviour in markets.

HEADLINE NEWS IN THIS SUNDAY'S PAPER TELLS US NOW THE WORST OF THE GREAT RECESSION IS BEHIND US.. SOUNDING THE ALL CLEAR SIGNAL FROM HERE...

We are glad the writers of these papers feel that way....feeling better is a big part of the nonsense we have had to go through in this cycle....

The old wall street adage SELL ON THE NEWS could be a possibility soon.....some stock valuations are getting stretched.....the stock market will begin a new rotation if it has not already...adjusting to the new rhythms and crowd behavior.

"Passive speculators" will continue to hoard and increase ownership in hard assets. The current increases/ projected in debt instruments (the reckless deficits) is simply unsustainable....especially at current interest rates....the longer they stay at effectively zero.. much less negative real rates.. the bigger the problem will become...Increasing taxes will make this math much worse.

Too many say ignore Greece...last week their interest rates went to 9% on their ten year and and 11% on their two year note...inverted....we are hard pressed to see something more alarming. Last week Fitch warned Japan about their debt ratings....adding pressure on Tokyo to pull together a credible plan to halt its financial deterioration.

Things to chew on:

a) At current demand/ growth rates we need to add/ new the equivalent of Saudi Arabia's energy's production every seven years.
b) At present there are 250,000,000 cars in the USA. 40,000,000 in China.
c) China is laying down approximately 1,000 kilometers of four lane highways every year.
d) An iPod today can hold some 160 gigabytes of data, or 160,000 books. The iPod of 2020 could potentially hold some 16 terabytes of information-essentially the entire Library of Congress.
e) 500 million people in India still lack access to electricity.
d) Organized crime (broadly defined globally) is estimated to be at $2-3 trillion and is growing faster than legal commercial trade...it has the potential to equal a third of global trade by 2020.

The recent deep oil well driller's explosion in the Gulf will make land based oil/ natural gas assets worth more....the cost and risk is very high for the off shore assets right now.....and getting more so....yet an incredible amount of new supply is simply expected from these high risk assets.

Daily trading ranges will start to expand as will volatility as these new trends/ concerns start to emerge/ develop...TIME TO ....know what you own!!

Danny Boy seen here taking a brief rest.....a long summer is upon us.