Monday, May 18, 2009

Creditors Bid

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A creditors bid means the creditor could use what it is owed to make a bid...or take control back of assets...through the courts..in Venezuela Chavez just takes the assets....he has been doing this much more aggressively lately...one could argue so is our current administration... using its privileged position. The anti-capitalist President of Venezuela says, he "deemed the assets unproductive," locals say the President is discouraging production by threatening private property. We see this weekly now (in America)...locals here afraid of confiscatory taxes and courts closing businesses and dictating new terms and conditions. People will be leaving the state (and closing businesses)....our bankrupt local newspaper described local lawmakers that are brought to tears over the weekend unable to get the Governor to raise taxes yet higher.

A large public company said the other day if they can't get a 20% return on their invested capital then they will not invest in growth capital expeditures...translation....pricing is going higher for everything.....as supply shrinks look for sticker shock. We hear businessmen say often now....risk adjusted, after tax, after inflation after your true cost of capital is factored in the "new price" to get that money free to the markets is much higher....oil is a great example....almost record shut in of production. This is also why banks are not lending right now.

It seems like people are talking about real estate (problems) at the same or higher pitched level when the market was at it's valuation highs a few years ago....

We hear way too much about Us versus Them, from all media...stirring up societal risks. Remember as news sources dwindle the remaining players have even more power and sway on the general public. For those who sold their stocks down 75%...they would require an 300% gain just to get back to even...the equivalent of compounding at 10% for 15 years!!

A famous quarterback who just passed away, once said to a young intern in his office... "who are you?" he said. "No one just an intern here," she said. "No one is just an intern here," he replied.
Finding today's youth an internship maybe the most important action an executive can do today......we need the youth engaged maybe never more so...

Another CEO said, "The most important thing is mentoring. People ignore their responsibility to mentor." When ever he visits an office he tries to get a group of younger people in the organization together to see what is on their minds. Great idea!

The market technicians (that are bearish) are being proven wrong today. Light volume (summer) and a record setting move in India (up 30%) has the attention of longer term focused money managers....the chart patterns of India's were very similar to ours here in America. In other words....a break out of that magnitude just broke the record books...seller beware!

Danny Boy seen here is amazed how the spring sun stays up so long.