You Gotta Hate To Lose

"You gotta hate to lose more than you want to win", said a pro football player the other day in training camp. So true.

"Never make an important decision at the end of a season when you are tired, sore, beat up and very emotional" said a famous football coach to me this week. Like what Bret Favre did at the end of his season last spring. Brett now is playing for the worst team in the NFL and the last place he expected to end up.

We are in "unknown" territory right now and on schedule for our prediction "everything" would try to be called (tops and bottoms) in July/ August 2008. Traders/ investors are afraid of losing, tired, emotional, roughed up and becoming more bearish by the day.

New York State is in big trouble when Mayor Bloomberg points out this past week..that the collective losses realized by Wall Street now approaching $500 billion means that these broker dealers and commercial banks will have net operating loss carry forwards that will allow them to not pay any taxes for the next five years. These collective firms represent 20% of the states fiscal budget. So in other words the state just lost 20% of it's income for a considerable period. The materiality of this is unprecedented. Again: Taxes are going higher and state (as well as Federal Spending ) is about to be slashed dramatically. California is in even worst shape right now with their poor fiscal stewardship. This is a big deal for the rest of the country as well.

We are now four quarters into these financial losses.....more are to come....the dollar's strength is easily a dead cat bounce...global interest rates are about to come down dramatically to try to jump start the economies back up again....this will take time....but is a positive...

The USA was the first to slow and maybe it will be the first to stabilize....we'll see.

Peak oil production was experienced in 2005, we have been living off of inventories (down again last week) don't be swayed by the new experts in all things hydrocarbons. Demand exceeds supply.

"When all is said and done, more is said than done", said Lou Holtz.

Danny Boy seen here is trying to enjoy the remaining two weeks of his summer.....his winter coat is starting to grow back now.