Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The Game Is On

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In Venezuela inflation is 22.5% the highest in the Western hemisphere. It's currency has lost half its value in the past year. Bankers have made money playing the huge gap between the official and black market exchange rates.

"You can either get very rich or lose a lot of money playing the game, and it always gets more complicated as the distortions get worse", said a famous banker from that region.

The Fed has now elected to go to a negative real cost of capital. The bankers pressured the fed into this action to help bail themselves out of the mess they are in....

Did you know it is suggested but not required, traders take at least five consecutive days of vacation each year and ideally ten business days in row so that in the case of fraud or cooking the books it might better allow compliance officers to detect trades being hidden? The debacle at Soc Gen is an embarrassment for the banking industry......rest assured there are dozens of other hidden bad billion dollar trades out standing and are being worked through now.....people hoping wishing for better markets...

The fellows heralded at certain hedge funds were called the new Rockefeller's of our age last year by the New York Times....now down and out they are turning "management" over to new people to try to save their investments....the same will happen to private equity soon...the give backs based on poor investments will be enormous.

"Nobody goes there any more: It's too crowded." Said Yogi

Others are hoping for the "dog has one-bite clause in their contracts"......i.e. you can't be fired without warning.

The multi year contraction and pay down of all things debt related will take a lot of money from the trading crowd in financials....all dead money for a long time....the fed action is wildly inflationary..

Oil is about to run very hard to the upside...what happened about global warming....coldest/ snowiest winter in 50 years!

Danny Boy seen here keeping a good look out......he is concerned about what he sees.