Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Careful!

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The Fed, as we have been saying for two years wanted severe pain for the leveraged crowd.....i.e. hedge funds and private equity....globally.

They have received what they were looking for and that is money contraction that is really concerning the investment pros....Goldman Sachs now very negative sees much worse to come..

Oil inventories have drawn down for the eighth straight week...no question Peak Oil is upon us globally.

Various measures of equity/ stock values has them at near all time lows. Others in the technical land see them going much lower....Gold is confusing everyone. So is oil.

There is now $187 trillion of fixed income, equity and commodity assets on the planet. Above ground gold, silver and platinum totals less than $4 trillion and there is only $600 billion in privately held gold bullion....it should be no surprise traders are jumping on what ever is moving like gold which will be higher for now....

In the last 60 years in rolling 12 month periods the stock market is up 78% of the time. Down 22% of the time. When up more than 20% .......33% of the time...When oil and gold are up the market is up 77% of the time...Even when Economic signals went negative....up 62% of the time...

Warren Buffet told shareholders in 2006, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful, appropriate prices don't guarantee profits in any given year, but inappropriate prices most certainly guarantee eventual losses."

With new management at Citi, Merrill and Bear Stearns rest assured with lawyers in hand inappropriately priced assets are being sold at market held....and right now everyone is universally bearish.

Bernanke needs to be careful here and cut rates more and loosen money supply....the noose is very tight. Never fight the tape.

We like the odds of staying in the market with the appropriate companies that are mispriced.

Danny Boy seen here seems pretty relaxed.