We Are Lucky

We are lucky here at Desert Springs Investments. We have access to the best and brightest minds on the Planet to help us with our research and stock picking. The hard part, and this only comes with a lot of time in the markets is to read and listen to these technical and fundamental experts (as well as corporate executives) and then determine on top of everything they are saying and have been doing over a long period of time...determine where they are coming from to make their conclusions. This is probably the hardest component to investing, taking their positions as an expert and then deciding internally we may not go that direction and/ or completely disagree and even think they could be wrong or off base...for some reason... so what could be those reasons??

Here is the fascinating part..a) Are they a democrat or a republican and are they influenced by concerns over what is happening in WDC. b) Is the firm they are working for taking a contrarian position to their own and they are fighting it? c) Have they never travelled to see a particular company or country..like China.. very few people have ever been there..but many consider themselves experts on the subject. d) Are they looking backwards for historical data or looking forwards to a new economy..a great example here is oil...supply siders think we will be swimming in oil shortly. e) Are they too close to a situation and can't see the big picture? Very often an analyst will completely miss a major move in their group for this simple reason. A perfect example here would be home builders..not making new lows now. f) Where are they in their own life cycle? How is their risk tolerance changing? This one fascinates us the most...clearly a 30 year old verses a 40 year old and a 50 year old and a 60 year old will have a very different view on life and risk tolerance. The obvious and most dangerous example here is the rise of hedge funds run by over paid 30 year olds with no history in the markets.

The market has had a very material bounce off its lows from a few weeks ago...now it needs to back and fill for a while. Of course oil is leading the way!

Rockin Robin seen here... is with the master of all these key investment traits that takes so much time and experience to understand and use to ones investment advantage.