Monday, June 09, 2014

Remember the "Crowd" IS Always Wrong

The crowd made their bets this weekend and lost the triple crown. The crowd sits in cash, bonds and a record amount of money in "alternative (hedge funds)" investments... and are losing. The crowd believes what they read and hear from the social media and they are missing the most important news......that is unfiltered or unbiased....its the way it always has been and will be.

We will continue to list what interests us and influences our investments.

- The Chinese Yuan currently makes up around 9% of the global market for trade settlement.....that is up from less than 2% in 2012. This is a clear trend.....and the Chinese stock markets have stopped going down......in fact flat now for many years..
- The Japan's population is in decline...there are more 65 year olds than under 24s. It is estimated that by 2060 Japans population will fall from 128 million to 87 million. There will soon be more adult diapers sold than baby diapers. That stock market will continue to be hard to make money in...it is a closed society...only 1.8% are non Japanese.
- The USA has the highest corporate taxes in the world.
- The new law Bill HR 2847 FATCA (foreign tax compliance act) will change how the world does business in the US dollar.....careful..
- New public debt under the current "leadership" has doubled....in only six years....and you want to own more?
- Only 14% of the German population is invested in shares of equity funds....that percent is lower than in 2012! And now with negative interest rates what will they do?
-The global market cap of all equity is $64 trillion...that is up from $26 trillion just five years ago.
- Stock buy backs remain at a record level...and on a daily basis corporations are the largest buyers of stock...year to date! They are also taking advantage of low interest rates and are issuing record amounts of new debt.
- There is $7.3 trillion sitting in cash earning zero today...plus another $1.6 trillion in checking accounts...also earning ZERO. Where is all this cash going to go??
- The second biggest airport in the world? Beijing. They are now spending over $14 billion to double it's size...anticipating over 142 million passengers by 2020.....is Atlanta (the current largest) expanding?
- Real household new worth now stands at a new high, and is on track with its long term average annual growth rate of just under 4%.
- Household debt has NOT increased at all in over 7 years.
- China makes up 12% of global GDP but only 2% of the global equity market cap....seems too small.
- Of the 13 tallest residential towers currently under construction globally, six are in Mumbai...the average living space for a resident of Mumbai is roughly 48 sq. feet

We read: 5 life lessons that need to be learned early:: And we agree.
1) Follow your gut 2) Let time be on your side 3) Don't waste your time on the wrong people 4) Realize that somethings are not meant to be 5) Pick up the phone!

When learning an industry , Warren Buffet would ask 10 CEO's two questions: 1) Pick one competitor to put your entire net worth in for the next ten years 2) Pick your worst competitor

What is the single most disliked... contrarian.... investment today (besides oil)? Gold.

What is unique about gold? a) It is durable b) It is divisible c) It is convenient d) It is consistent e) It has value f) A government can't create gold out of nothing.

Danny Boy seen here.. has never liked the crowd... but that does not mean he can't take advantage of it.