Gambler's Ruin

"Cap the Capitol" said the sign, of the times this week. The original gambler's ruin is that a gambler who raises his bet to a fixed fraction of bankroll when he wins, but does not reduce it it when he loses, will eventually go broke, even if he has a positive expected value on each bet. (Wikipedia)

The US Government pulled another $74,000,000,000 out of the capital markets this week....and guess what.... each auction got worse and worse.....this game of sucking the well dry is going to end very shortly and not very pretty.....

The structural problems of this country are not being addressed by this less than well read leadership.....and it is getting worse...they are in denial.....and soon the capital markets will deny them of the funds needed to manipulate the interest rates....

"But/ If"... is what we hear from these folks on the left...that when taxes go higher (and they are going much higher) they think everything will be ok....maybe more than ok....NOBODY IS ADDRESSING THE OUT OF CONTROL SPENDING BY ALL FORMS OF THE GOVERNMENT...

Mutual Bond fund flows remain elevated and equity remains out of favor....bond holders are starting to see their losses accelerate...the largest money manager in the world now is a bond fund....they are seeing the top.

The United Nations estimates that 17% of greenhouse gas emissions are caused by deforestation-more than is caused by by the world's planes, trucks, ships, and cars combined. (Forbes)

To us the thin tape of the holiday market is dangerous right now....hedge funds are chasing relative performance in stocks that are getting over priced...without the general public participating...which means once these stocks stall out they will quickly reverse.....

Year end squaring of the books is bringing many US Dollars back on the books...thus the recent strength in the dollar...gold is having a textbook correction....we are buying more...here...the US Dollar relative to Gold has lost on average 15% of it's value each year this past decade. It is breath taking how much money (people getting bad advice) the general public is losing in terms of purchasing power and as they are completely unaware of this fact.....now on an after tax, after devaluation, after inflation to just stay even requires a very focused portfolio....especially going forward.....as the dollar goes ever lower. Gold stocks in general tend to outperform gold/ spot 2x...and gold shares have been lagging .....correctly calling for this current pull back in the spot price of gold.

India looks higher and China is raising record amounts of new money in stock offerings....a positive long term...

Barkly seen here always had a calming presence about him......and he was not a gambler.