Chosen by Lot

The market is rallying and investors are screaming at both ends of the spectrum. The rapidly approaching demise of the free world (The debtor nations) and the rise of the less free world (the Creditor) nations.....more and more bail outs...more and more debt.

Fact: The next five years are not going to be like the last five years.. We are working out too much capacity in the system...think autos. We will start to pay down debt (and save more)...think credit cards. We will buy less stuff...think slow down in consumer spending.

Year end fear has taken over too many people's brains. "Fear of punishment-as in the economic downturn-can alter humans' decision-making."

Fear: $1.5 trillion to be funded for the US Treasury in 2009? That will compete for hard earned after tax savings dollars....which means less money goes into productivity gains and new investment. Over $800 billion of existing corporate debt will be maturing in 2009. Also competing for ever more scarce dollars.

The only way out of this mess in to reflate the economy.....flooding the system with dollars. We wish we could invest in printing presses....maybe that is what people are doing buying treasuries here.....the current bubble ready to explode.

Houses are selling below replacement cost....so is copper and oil and natural gas.....We are much better buyers of tangible hard to replace assets that throw off cash....for us.... not the government.

Asia was the first stock market to correct and they are the first to be rallying...so are oils....funny because everyone is saying avoid emerging markets at all costs and the same people are saying oil is going lower....sell oils..we disagree with both conclusions.

We continue to buy great companies selling below book value....buys of a lifetime?

-89% in Siberia....lots of new ice being made up north.

Danny Boy seen here getting ready for the shortest day of the year coming up soon.