The Need To Experience Urgency

Coach Madden said the other night, "the new quarterback needs to experience urgency in his game plan."

This market remains dangerous. We were so over sold in last Friday's record down day.. that it was logical to see a record up day follow. This is normal in a bear market. Traders continue to make the highs on the openings and lows the next day.

What is next? The government has to be very careful in not overstepping its urgency to participate in the private sector. "The Treasury should think in the long-term (not just the short-term) interests of the tax payer. This means saving the economy from cascading financial firm failures to protect its long-term tax revenues rather than trying to protect itself from investment losses."

There is a long work out in front of the USA. The municipalities are next as they will have to show their books to the new investors in tax free muni paper. It is still under priced as interest rates are going much higher.....as are taxes.....and spending is going a lot lower. Private equity has a major problem with the same math. The invested endowments and pension funds are all in major work outs now. A slowing global economy is the future for years....all we are doing right now with all the capital injections is replacing yet more debt for debt.....this has to stop.

Only over capitalized companies with first tier management and a diversified revenue base will survive and take massive new market share from all the rest. Expect many mergers and bankruptcies for the next two years. Margin calls on leveraged loans!

Do not trade this market. Do not double down on bad investments. Take tax losses and reposition into great companies on weakness is the portfolio strategy for the next cycle...

Barkly seen here looking forward to winter years ago.....by the way a colder than normal winter is expected.